The importance of not Overtrading


If you reach your daily goal and continue trading you may win some and you may lose some. After winning and losing you can end up where you were when you began the trading day. It is a good idea to have a target and stick to it. When you make x amount of profit for that day then you quit trading. The amount can be a percentage increase of your account or a set figure for that day. If you use an expert advisor most of them have an option to set a target. You should ensure this target reflects your daily goals.

There are many benefits to having a target and finishing for the day when you reach it. You should have a target for how much of an equity increase you will take for the day as well as an amount you are willing to lose for that particular day.

It takes strong mental discipline and controlled emotions to avoid overtrading. Many traders lose because they lack the discipline, concentration and focus. They are also driven by greed and fear which means they are more liable to overtrade. Forex robots can be used to automatically trade for you which helps for those who do not have the skill, knowledge, discipline or focus to trade manually.

Trading can be a stressful job if you let it be. Overtrading is a cause of this stress. Every day a trader should make a few trades at the most and have a plan of when to enter and exit these trades. It is very important to stick to the plan regardless of what happens. If the plan is not followed there is 95% chance the trader will fail.

About the Author

Link to the forex robot/expert advisor that I use and have had great success with so far http://www.forexluger.com.


What is Forex?


If you have a little extra money on hand, you might want to consider investing in the Forex market. What is the Forex market? Forex, (which specifically stands for the Foreign Exchange Market), is an international exchange allowing people to invest money based on currency exchanges. If a currency increases in value, a person makes a profit, similar to how one can make a profit when stocks increase in value.

Since the Forex market is worldwide, it is offers more profit potential than even the New York Stock Exchange. In fact, the Forex market brings in over 1.5 trillion in U.S. dollars every day. Any serious investor needs to definitely consider getting into the Forex market at some point in their investment ventures.

The process of Forex trading is very similar to stock investing. A person can opt to get a Forex broker who will provide assistance in the trading process. If they have a broker, they will need to have a little money upfront to pay them. This is in addition to whatever money was going to be used in the process of Forex investing. If this is a problem, a person can try to start Forex trading themselves.

Numerous websites are available to assist in this process. Examples include FXCM.com and FXClub.com. With FXCM.com you'll need a minimum of $300, before being able to start with your Forex venture. On the other hand, FXClub.com can allow you to start Forex trading with as little as $10.

If you would prefer to trade as the professionals do with thousands instead of hundreds upfront, you may want to consider doing what is known as margin trading. Margin trading is when a person does Forex trading with capital that was obtained through a loan or some other type of borrowed source. The hope is that enough money will be earned through Forex trading that a person will still retain a profit even after their loan is paid off.

To be successful with Forex trading, one must do more than simply invest money. They need to be aware of all the economic trends associated with whatever currency they are looking into. This means evaluating both the currency itself and the economic climate of the country it is associated with. While the most successful Forex trades tend to be with the Euro or the U.S. dollar, this does not mean other currencies can't offer a good profit, especially if the country associated with them are progressing.

The best way to form an educated guess is by researching that particular country's news. It may not even hurt to network with citizens of that country through message boards. If language is an issue, a person can consider using an automated translator or paying a fee to a professional translator. The latter is preferable if a person has no knowledge of a particular language, since automated translators tend not to translate in the best way.

In conclusion, Forex trading can be an effective way at generating an income. Yet, to do Forex trading properly, one should not neglect the importance of research and statistical analysis of economic trends.

About the Author

The Top 03 Forex Profit Softwares Review.Visit: www.top-forex-softwares.co.cc



Currency Correlation- How to Use It?

Currencies are priced in pairs, no single pair trades completely independently of the others. This makes the understanding of correlation very important.

For example, currency pair "A" moves in the same direction as pair "B" and we have been following up pair A's move very closely. We expect it to go up and we buy. We have not been following up pair "B" so closely and suddenly we look into that and the fundamentals or technical analysis suggests us that this pair may go down. We short sell. What eventually would happen that we would end up having profit on one pair and loss on the other as they moved in same direction. Similar case would happen if we simultaneously go long or short on two pairs which move in opposite directions.

Once we know about these correlations and their changes with time, we can take advantage of them to control our portfolio's exposure.
The correlation coefficient ranges between -1 and +1.

A correlation of +1 implies that the two currency pairs will move in the same direction 100% of the time. A correlation of -1 implies the two currency pairs will move in the opposite direction 100% of the time. A correlation of zero implies that the relationship between the currency pairs is completely random.

Positive Correlation:

A positive figure but less than +1 means that the currency pairs generally move in same direction but not always. A value closer to +1 means that most of the time they move in the same direction

Negative Correlation:

A negative figure but more than -1 means that the currency pairs generally move in opposite direction but not always. A value closer to -1 means that most of the time they move in opposite directions.

For calculating currency correlation and having a graphical representation, please visit http://www.forexabode.com/trading-tools

How to use currency correlation when you are trading Forex? Well, your slow speed because of an occasional traffic jam on the expressway does not really indicate that the average speed you would end up on the road will be same. The correlation is dynamic and change every moment. Take a note of the correlation of the past few days and compare it with the correlation value in the long term, say past one year. If the short term value is far different from the long term value, may be it's offering you a chance to place a trade... but how? Let's say that currency pairs A and B has a correlation value of 0.98 during past one year. It means that they both move in almost the same direction. When currency pair A moves up, currency pair B also moves up with the same speed. Suddenly you notice that during the past one month or one week the correlation value of the currency pairs A and B is 0.10 i.e. moving in the same direction but with a different speed. To clarify as an example let's say two cars are moving towards the same destination, one is moving at 100 miles/hr and another at 10 miles/hour. But we can assume that ultimately both may have to catch up on the speed (similar speeds). So what do we do? Well, we find out which one is slow and ride that.

When we convert this car example to currency trading, suppose two currency pairs move in the same direction and have been moving up with a correlation over 0.60 in the long-term and we find that suddenly the correlation value in during the past few days has become 0.20, we just see which currency pair's movement (increase is slow) and we could buy that. On the other hand we could short-see another currency pair.

Disclaimer: Trading has it's own risks and no analysis can assure you that it would prove to be correct 100%. We need to work innovatively to make strategies which have less risks and more gains.


About the Author

The author is a Forex Trader and also runs ForexAbode.com. By qualification a graduate mechanical engineer, with over 20 years of diversified international experience. The Involvement with Forex Trading started in the year 2000. Over the years Forex Trading not only became the greatest passion but evolved into a success which could replace the traditional successful consulting and business development career.

Trading Decisions

First off, when making your trading decisions, stay away from your emotions. Decisions based on your emotions are hardly every right.

If you have a strong gut feeling that a certain stock will go up or down then, unless it’s based on your analysis, forget about it. And even if you have made your decision based on what you saw on the chart or based on what the fundamental analysis told you, at all times it’s your responsibility to keep yourself emotion-free.

Why? I guess it’s the most simple to explane it via poker. A good poker player might know exactly what to do, when to do and how to do and he may have decided also to act on only depending on his knowledge. However, if some other player starts to piss him off or if he needs money fast he might start to make decisions that are affected by his emotions and thus are not clear and right ones anymore. He might have started based on his knowledge and analysis of other players but after the flop he is starting to feel lucky and does a wrong move. It’s the same with trading stocks or forex. You might have made a right decisions when buying the stock and you might have set the right stop loss and take profit limits. However, due to emotional hopes that do not stem from any exact analysis anymore, you decide to move the stop loss lower for example. Just because you THINK this stock WILL go up very very soon.

Until long you notice the stock is still falling, you keep adjusting your stop loss limits to even lower and lower levels where eventually you are starting to think – wtf have I done? Everything was great, I would have taken a minor loss, so what...but instead I took a huge loss. And all that due to the adrenalin in my brain.

So, even though I am very well aware that keeping your emotions locked when playing poker or when trading is not a simple task, it IS a very important task in order to become a successful and profitable trader.

Price changes ARE emotional
While you yourself should not act on your emotions, you do need to keep in mind that the major crowd on the markets do act on emotions and this means that the price changes are caused by emotions. Trading for most people is emotional not rational. And because of that, when making our trading decisions, we must take rational approach to conquer emotionalism.

The main emotions that are causing price changes on the markets are fear and greed. And that’s also one reason why technical analysis works. Prices are somewhat predictable due to the market players, the people, their emotions, their fear and greed.

Imagine a bad news about a stock or a company that is published in Financial Times. You now make your analysis and get to the conclusion that actually there is nothing wrong with the stock and the news shouldn’t really affect the stock price. At least logically thinking. However, very many traders are searching for a reason to buy or sell a stock, many traders are counting on news on their trading decisions and if they see a bad news, they are starting to feel fear and they act on it. And because they are doing it and there’s lots of them you can’t anymore think that your analysis is correct and the stock price will not go down. Your analysis was correct from the rational perspective. However, if masses are starting to sell the stock then the price will go down – so your rational decision, especially if you’re a day trader, should be to rationally analyse what will people’s emotions do to the market.

Thanks to technical analysis you often do not even have to take a look at the news to see what’s happening. If you’re a good chart reader and interpretator you can see it all from the charts – the news, the fear, the greed.

Emotions

Your Emotions
and Trading ...

By: Terry Ashman

Musashi, a legendary seventeenth century Japanese Samurai, formulated rules for warfare which are still used by Japanese business people today.

One rule is ...

Plan logically, but attack with emotion.



While this rule is suitable for a physical battle, if you use it while trading, you are at a supreme disadvantage. To apply it to trading, the rule should read ...

Plan logically, and attack (trade) WITHOUT emotion.

A number of psychologists have noted that normal human behavioral patterns are unsuited to trading the markets. Normal human responses to winning and losing will cause people to do exactly the wrong thing at the wrong time in the markets.

To illustrate ...

1. Take the situation where you have a long position and it immediately goes into profit. The normal human response is to want to take the profit quickly. This gives immediate gratification and removes any fear you may have had of losing the profit while the trade was on. This results in the situation called "cutting your profits short."

2. The opposite situation is when you put on a trade (again let's say it's a long position), and it goes against you. The normal human response is to hang on to the losing trade and hope it comes back and gives you a profit. But it keeps going down, so now you want it to come back so you can at least break even.

But it still goes down, so now you hope it will come back and give you a small loss. Down it goes further and you now have a big loss but you don't want to take the loss because it is emotionally painful to take losses. So you keep delaying the pain and losing more money.

If you are trading non-leveraged stocks, (that is, you have bought the shares outright and have paid for them in full), by now you may rationalize the loss by calling it a "long term investment" and just hang on to the shares. After all, if you sold now you'd lose heaps.

If you were trading in leveraged commodities you could be in real financial trouble at this point. This situation is called "letting your losses run."

You'll notice that cutting your profits short and letting your losses run is the exact opposite of what you are supposed to do, which is cutting your losses short and letting your profits run.

3. Now let's go back to the first situation where you've taken your profit quickly and you have your immediate gratification and removal of anxiety. You have a nice little profit but now the market is still going up. If you'd hung on you could have made even more! You get out your calculator, work out how much money you should have made by now, and think about what you could have done with that money. So you ring your broker and buy in again, noting with satisfaction that the front page news headline now reads ...

"Bulls Roar in Market Surge"

The market messes around for the next week or so and then starts to drift a bit lower, but you hang on because the broker says it's just a temporary reaction and anyhow, the media is still full of reasonably bullish news.

You hang on for a few more days but the market just keeps going down. Now the media has turned bearish.

What went wrong?
A number of things. Let's list them ...

1. Greed. You looked at all the money you thought you should have made and jumped back in - just as the market was topping.

2. You "spent" the money you thought you should have made. You must never do this.

3. You listened to the media. You used the media to back up your decision to get back in, not realizing that the media is not a predictor, it's a follower. It just reports what has happened, usually when it's all over. Never trade on the news. Once the bull market hits the front page news and you decide to buy in on the strength of this news, you are trading with the mob - not the smart money.

4. You listened to the broker. If you've got a properly researched and tested trading method that you know intimately and have confidence in, you don't need or want the broker's advice on specifically when to buy and sell. Remember - the buck stops with you.

5. You exited your original position based on emotion, not logic.

Let's see what Gann says about this aspect of trading ... On page 16 of "How to Make Profits in Commodities", Gann says ...

"WHAT TRADERS DON'T WANT TO KNOW. With all due respect to my readers, many traders when they are in the market don't want to know the facts and don't want to know the truth. They hope the market will go their way. They want it to go their way and want to be told that it will. When you are in the market you should be unbiased and try to determine whether you are in right or wrong. When you find you are in wrong, admit it quickly and get out. Our old rule is, when in doubt, get out. When you have nothing to hold on for but hope, sell out at the market quickly. Don't look for the man who will advise you that your position is right and that the market will soon start going your way. Look for the man that will tell you the truth and prove it to you. Better still, learn how to prove it to yourself whether you are right or wrong. Face the facts. Change your position. Change your mind. Change with the trend and you will make profits."

On page 17 of "How to Make Profits in Commodities", Gann says . "HOPE AND FEAR: ........ The average man or woman buys commodities because they hope they will go up or because somebody advises them they will go up. This is the most dangerous thing to do. Never trade on hope. Hope wrecks more people than anything else. Study the market and determine the trend. Face the facts, and when you trade, trade on facts, eliminate hope."

"Fear causes many losses. People sell out because they fear commodities are going lower, but they often wait until the decline has run its course and they sell near the bottom. Often when they have been out of the market for some time, they get in because they fear it is going higher. Never make a trade on fear. The Bible says, "Ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free." Know the facts and know the truth. When you do this, you will have no hope and no fear and you will trade on well defined rules and go with the trend and will make profits."

That last sentence is very important. "When you do this, you will have no hope and no fear (trade without emotion) and you will trade on well defined rules and go with the trend and will make profits."

Other quotes from Gann on this subject ... "You will never succeed buying or selling when you hope the market is going up or down. You will never succeed by making a trade because you fear the market is going up or down. Hope will ruin you because it is nothing more than wishful thinking and provides no basis for action. Fear will often save you if you act quickly when you see that you are wrong. "The fear of the market is the beginning of wisdom". Knowledge that you can only obtain by deep study will help you to make a success. The more you study past records the surer you are to be able to detect the trend in the future."

"Remember, never buck the trend : after you detect the trend, go with it regardless of what you think, hope or fear and you will make a success."

"People often write me and say "You were bearish on a certain stock on such and such a date; now .........you are bullish on it. My answer is "A wise man changes his mind, a fool never." ............ "Go into the market to make money and be ready to change sides when the occasion demands it."

Copyright © 2001
Terry Ashman

HotTrader, Australia

Waspada Skim Dagangan Mata Wang Asing Haram: BNM


KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) menasihati orang ramai supaya tidak menyertai mana-mana pelaburan haram atau program latihan dagangan mata wang asing yang ditawarkan oleh individu atau syarikat.

Di dalam satu kenyataan di sini hari ini, BNM berkata, orang ramai biasanya tertarik untuk menghadiri program pelaburan atau latihan yang menjanjikan pulangan yang segera dan besar.
Katanya, modus operandi program sedemikian telah menawarkan latihan, seminar, bengkel percuma untuk menarik para pelabur, sebelum menjemput mereka mewujudkan satu akaun dagangan mata wang asing dengan sebuah syarikat utama.

Syarikat itu dikatakan mempunyai lesen sah untuk berdagang mata wang asing di seberang laut.

Ia juga termasuk menyediakan akses mudah ke laman web syarikat utama dan memudahkan dagangan mata wang asing secara online oleh para pelabur serta bagi mengambil siswazah baharu sebagai eksekutif pamasaran.
Para siswazah juga digalakkan untuk menarik ahli keluarga dan rakan-rakan untuk berdagang mata wang asing.

Program sedemikian turut menghendaki para pelabur mendeposit sejumlah wang ke dalam akaun bank untuk memulakan dagangan mata wang asing dan seterusnya meminta ditambah bagi mencukupkan jumlah yang berkurangan berikutan pelaburan awal masing-masing (penggilan margin) bagi mengelakkan kehilangan modal.

Di bawah Akta Kawalan Pertukaran Asing 1953 (ECA), adalah menjadi satu kesalahan bagi seseorang untuk membeli atau menjual mata wang asing atau terlibat di dalam sebarang perbuatan atau mempunyai kaitan atau membuatpersediaan di dalam membeli atau menjual mata wang asing dengan sebarang orang atau selain daripada peniaga yang dibenarkan.
Adalah juga menjadi kesalahan bagi seseorang untuk membantu atau bersubahat dengan seseorang yang lain untuk membeli atau menjual mata wang asing dengan seseorang, kecuali individu itu adalah seorang peniaga yang dibenarkan.

Senarai peniaga dan institusi kewangan yang dibenarkan oleh Pengawal Pertukaran Asing untuk membeli atau menjual mata wang asing boleh diperolehi dari laman web BNM (http://www.bnm.gov.my/fxadmin).
Bagi mendapatkan maklumat lanjut, orang ramai boleh menghubungi BNM di talian 1-300-88-5465 atau e-mel (bnmtelelink@bnm.gov.my). - BERNAMA

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